What to Expect This Winter with Arizona’s Weather

Southeastern Arizona didn't get as much rainfall as they would have liked, but in places like Cochise County, they averaged about 6.5 inches. Higher elevations like the Huachuca Mountains got even more.

Tucson and Phoenix received slightly below-average rainfall, and statewide rainfall was similarly low. Essentially, Cochise got soaked, Phoenix remained parched, and Tucson got a light drizzle.

We always hope to make up the moisture over the winter, but will this be the case this year?

When we get strange weather in Arizona, it helps to be prepared. Read this: Watch Out for this Dangerous Weather Pattern in Arizona

Will It Be A Wet Winter in Arizona?

Spoiler alert: It probably won't be a wet winter in Arizona. Forecasters from the National Weather Service and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center are not betting on a soggy winter, especially in Southeastern Arizona.

Cochise County, Tucson, and Phoenix could get precipitation levels 40 to 50% below normal. Scientists are hoping January will have a few more showers, but February’s forecast will probably be warm and dry.

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Will it Snow in Southeastern Arizona This Winter?

I know, a lot of Arizona natives hope for a White Christmas, even more than in other places around the country. It's happened in years past, but climate scientists don't think it'll happen this year.

Snowfall is expected to be below average, according to AccuWeather.com. Even higher elevations like Mount Lemmon and the Chiricahuas that typically get a lot of snow may fall flat.

The outlook for snow is more promising in Flagstaff, but in Southeastern Arizona, you might want to keep your flipflops handy, because the odds of real snow are pretty slim this winter.

Overall, winter temperatures in Tucson and Phoenix are expected to be about 3 degrees above average, thanks to warm Pacific waters. The coldest temperatures are likely to hit in mid-November to early January. Relatively speaking, it'll still be reasonably warm, more like light jacket weather than polar vortex.

Learn about a different kind of weather in Arizona: Understanding Fire Danger: Arizona's Wildfire Alerts Explained

What’s Driving This Winter's Desert Heat?

The Weather Channel points to La Niña as the culprit for a warmer, drier winter. This climate pattern pushes the jet stream north, making most of Arizona high, dry, and warm. Forecasters say La Niña will linger, but by spring, they think things will begin to shift in the Pacific.

So, get out your light sweaters and hoodies, but don't put away your flip-flops. Winter in Arizona is going to be warmish and dry throughout the season.