Dangerous Wildfires and Excessive Heat Could Impact Arizona Summer

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, Arizona is facing a hot summer. The warmer‑than‑average heat, especially from June through August, could set new records.

Get our free mobile app

What Kind Of Summer Is Arizona Facing?

This summer’s seasonal outlook shows “elevated odds of above‑normal temperatures” across the entire Southwest. The temperatures are being driven by long‑term warming trends and “lingering ocean‑atmosphere patterns that favor heat in the interior West.”

Translated to English: La Niña is still dancing on our global weather patterns, and Arizona is taking the heat. Literally. We’ll get a good monsoon, at least. Right? That’s a solid, maybe. Precipitation will be a little trickier this summer.

Early‑season outlooks, according to the National Weather Service, “don’t strongly favor wetter or drier conditions statewide”. NOAA says monsoon variability remains high, however. That means we could see anything from a late start to sudden bursts of moisture depending on how the subtropical ridge sets up.

In short: plan for heat, stay flexible on rain.

READ: Why Experts Worry Arizona Could See Dangerous Wildfires this Year

What Does That Mean For Wildfire Season?

You can probably guess what’s coming next: warm, dry winters can lead to an increased wildfire season.

The National Interagency Fire Center’s Predictive Services team says Arizona is facing a significant wildfire potential this year. A lot depends on how much spring moisture we get and how quickly temperatures ramp up.

Their national outlook highlights “above‑normal fire potential can emerge when fine fuels (like grasses) dry out early, especially after a winter that produced patchy vegetation growth.”

READ: Are You Ready for Wildfire Season in Arizona?

If the monsoon arrives late or delivers less-than-average early moisture, we can expect elevated fire danger in June and early July. This is the time when hot, dry, and windy conditions typically peak. Let’s all hope the monsoon arrives on time, because it can tamp down the wildfire risk.

Right now, the risk is evolving. Even modest drops in humidity, combined with breezy afternoons, can elevate fire weather, especially across central and southern Arizona.

READ: Xeriscaping and Water Harvesting to Save Water in Arizona

Bottom Line For Arizonans

La Niña is still controlling the climate in Arizona. We can expect a hotter-than-normal summer, a potentially active early fire season, and a lot of hope riding on when the monsoon starts.

It’s important to plan now. The Department of Forestry and Fire Management advises us to stay fire‑wise by clearing brush, avoiding sparks, and keeping an eye on Red Flag Warnings. Prevention and preparedness could matter more than ever this year.

You can see a real-time view of wildfires in Arizona here on InciWeb, the Incident Information System.