Will Arizona Have a Wet Winter? Here’s What Early Forecasts Are Saying

After a very rainy summer, I’m beginning to wonder what our winter will be like. According to forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the odds currently favor a wetter-than-normal winter across most of Arizona.

a person riding a wave on top of a surfboard

No one can predict exactly when storms will arrive months in advance; experts think the current El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean will strongly influence the weather over the next few months.

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A Wetter Winter May Be Ahead

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center data suggests there’s a good chance we’ll have above-normal precipitation across Arizona this winter.

The current forecast runs from December 2026 to February 2027.  If nothing changes, Arizona is very likely to see wetter-than-usual conditions.

rocky mountain photography

It looks like the wet weather we’ve seen all summer will continue over the next few months. That could mean more rainy days, an increased chance of winter storms, and, unlike last winter, a good chance we’ll see snow, at least at higher elevations.

RELATED: How Super El Niño Could Transform Arizona's Monsoon Season

El Niño Is A Major Factor

So, why is Arizona experiencing all this out-of-character weather right now? It all comes down to the climate phenomenon known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

bird's-eye view of sea waves

Most of this forecast is connected to the strengthening El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean. Historically, stronger El Niño events can shift the ocean jet stream southward. This increases the chances of winter storms across Arizona and other parts of the Southwest, according to UnofficialNetworks.com.

A strong El Niño pattern doesn’t necessarily mean a wetter-than-normal winter, but it does improve the odds.

RELATED: When Is Arizona’s Summer Monsoon Season?

What About Temperatures?

I know a lot of us are over the summer’s heat, but will Arizona get relief with cooler temperatures this winter? According to MyWild.com, the short answer is: maybe.

The outlook looks pretty good for wet weather, but temperatures are less certain. Current forecasts show equal chances of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal temperatures across much of Arizona.

3 clear glass bottles on brown wooden shelf

Yeah, that doesn’t really tell us much. It could be hot. It might be cold. There’s a chance it’ll be normal winter temps. Forecasters don’t see any strong signals that give us a good clue right now.

Could Arizona See More Snow?

We might get more snow, however. The wetter pattern could be good news if you love snow. Places like Flagstaff, the White Mountains, and other higher elevations will have a better chance at a white winter than last year.

More winter storms could create better snowfall opportunities, but it’s still too early to tell for sure. Snow ultimately depends on temperatures and the path of individual storms, NOAA says.

overlooking forest and mountains

The Bottom Line

If experts are correct, we’ll probably get more rain and snow than last year, but overall temperatures are anybody’s guess.

rain drops on clear glass windshield

Here in Southeastern Arizona, I’m hoping for a short-lived, light dusting of snow, but I'll take more rain, mirroring the weather we've had all summer. Ideally, I’d prefer it not be too cold.

Here’s hoping we get a “Goldilocks” winter, where it’s not too hot or too cold, too wet or too dry. But only time will tell.