'Unfriendly Skies': Is Air Travel More Dangerous This Year?

A friend was getting ready to take a trip to another state and posted about it on social media the other day. She had seen yet another report about this year's dangerous rise in aviation incidents. She worried she might be better off canceling her flight.

While there's no denying there have been more deadly air-related disasters this year, is air travel really more dangerous than it was last year?

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The Unfriendly Skies: Is Air Travel More Dangerous This Year?

Like my friend, you may have noticed what appears to be an uptick in aviation incidents since the start of this year.

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According to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), there have been 15 aviation incidents in Arizona this year alone, including the tragic accident in February involving the plane owned by Mötley Crüe's Vince Neil. The aircraft crashed into a parked plane at the Scottsdale Airport, killing a pilot and injuring four other people on the plane. Vince Neil was not on the flight, if you missed the story.

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These days, every time you turn on the news, there's another story about a plane crash or some kind of aviation mishap. If you've been thinking about nixing your vacation plans, slow your roll. Things are not quite as they seem.

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There's no denying that this year has seen an increase in deadly aviation incidents, but the number of air-related disasters is actually down compared to last year at this time.

A Deadly Year for Air Traffic in America

The media's hypervigilance on air disasters and near-misses began in January with one of the deadliest air disasters in recent history.

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The shocking tragedy happened when American Airlines Flight 5342 collided with a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter as it was landing at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. All 64 people on board the flight and the three on the helicopter perished.

Seeing Red

Since then, every air traffic incident has been reported and highlighted news reports.

The news media is taking advantage of the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon or frequency illusion. It's a cognitive bias where you start seeing something more often after noticing it for the first time.

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For example, say you bought a red car and suddenly began to notice how many red cars there are on the road; you've experienced this bias. Except in this case, the media is helping you 'notice the red cars' by reporting on every air incident, no matter how minor.

Have There Been More Aviation Incidents This Year?

So, how many aviation incidents have there actually been this year compared to last year?

Since January 1, 2025, there have been 87 aviation accidents in the U.S., according to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), including 62 incidents in January and 25 in February.

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By this time last year, there were 123 aviation accidents. Let that sink in for a moment. No, airplanes aren't falling from the sky, as the media would have you believe. Statistically speaking, flying is still one of the safest ways to travel, even if you're a rockstar with a jet in Arizona.

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